According to a recent report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US unemployment rate has climbed to 10.2% and 7.3 millions jobs have been lost since the start of the recession in December 2007 (remember, analysts backdated once they discovered the economy was on a crash course in April 2008). What this means for landlords is that if they can survive the next layoff season (November – January), they may start to see modest stabilization in space demand. Most feel they will be well positioned for growth over the next two years, but after the past two, it would be pretty hard to expect anything else.
The latest BLS report shows the number of job losses have been steadily declining over the last three months. However, if the nine-year averages hold true, job losses could skyrocket in the coming three months. In the past nine years, jobs lost in mass layoffs in November, December and January have been 61% higher on average than the number laid off in the previous months from February to October (think recent layoffs from Electronic Arts, Sprint, Nextel, Sun, Pfizer, Microsoft, Adobe, Borders, etc.) If this trend holds, there will be more than 1.1 million workers let go in the next three months.
Beyond the short-term (2010), business owners are demonstrating some optimism. A Guardian Life report issued two weeks ago shows that 92% of small businesses expressed optimism about their enterprises, with 54% expecting to maintain business as usual and 38% looking forward to expanding their business over the next 12 to 24 months.
From a regional perspective, the South has the highest percentage of owners (62%) who project stable or increased revenues followed by the Northeast (61%), the Midwest (59%) and the West (56%).
Source: Costar
